Portfolio Dashboard

12.06.2026 12:43

Portfolio 51,007€

P&L +195€ (+0.4%)

Cash 4,900€

VaR 95% N/A (unzureichende Daten)

VERKAUFEN

0

Keine Verkaufsempfehlungen

HALTEN

19

Position	Stück	Delta	Kurs	Wert	P&L	Score	Signal
VWCE.DE Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF	31	—	162.00€	5,022€	+11.6%	58	HOLD
VLO Valero Energy Energy	9	—	220.97€	1,989€	+18.8%	68	BUY
TDIV.AS VanEck Morningstar Developed Markets Dividend Leaders UCITS ETF	157	—	45.14€	7,086€	-13.7%	67	HOLD
NEM Newmont Corporation Materials	33	—	84.37€	2,784€	-15.6%	61	HOLD
AMAT Applied Materials Semiconductors	4	—	477.76€	1,911€	+44.1%	77	HOLD
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORP. NEW Semiconductors	10	—	313.40€	3,134€	+21.9%	82	HOLD
HWM HOWMET AEROSPACE DL-,01 Industrials	16	—	228.75€	3,660€	+2.9%	74	BUY
BK Bank of New York Mellon Financials	27	—	122.84€	3,317€	+14.5%	72	BUY
CFG Citizen Financials Group Financials	55	—	57.50€	3,162€	+4.0%	82	STRONG_BUY
JBL Jabil Inc. Technology Earnings in 5d (Q2 2026)	5	—	325.82€	1,629€	+27.5%	80	HOLD
ADI Analog Devices Inc. Semiconductors	4	—	356.29€	1,425€	-0.4%	78	HOLD
TER Teradyne Inc. Semiconductors	11	—	329.72€	3,627€	+1.4%	75	HOLD
CF CF Industry Holdings Materials	34	—	92.12€	3,132€	-15.1%	67	BUY
APA APA coroporation Energy	32	—	31.80€	1,017€	-8.1%	58	HOLD
HAS Hasbro Inc. Consumer	11	—	72.42€	797€	-8.3%	60	HOLD
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Technology	6	—	309.29€	1,856€	-5.9%	70	HOLD
CSCO Cisco Inc. Technology	14	—	105.32€	1,475€	+1.0%	73	HOLD
FCX Freeport McMoRan Inc. Technology	56	—	57.35€	3,212€	-5.5%	74	HOLD
VRT Vertiv Holdings Industrials	3	—	257.52€	773€	-18.9%	66	BUY

KAUFEN

2

Position	Aktuell	Kaufen	Kurs	Invest	Kosten	Ziel	Score	Signal
FDX FDX Industrials	0	+3	292.20€	+877€	1.02€ (0.05%)	3	77	STRONG_BUY
CASY CASY Unknown	0	+1	792.12€	+792€	0.40€ (0.05%)	1	74	BUY

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG

Verkäufe +0€

Käufe -1,669€

Netto -1,669€

Status ✓ Cash OK

Transaktionskosten -5.93€ (0.36%)

Broker-Profil Finanzen.Net Zero (Gettex)

COOLDOWN: 1 blockiert TLH: 0 geerntet AVT: 5,002.79€ P&L: +0.00€ KOSTEN: 0 gefiltert AUDIT: audit_log.jsonl

FAMILY OFFICE

Core (ETFs)

21.7%

Ziel: 30% OK

Satellite (Aktien)

69.6%

Ziel: 65% OK

Cash

8.8%

Ziel: 5% OK

Positionen

19/20

Auslastung: 95%

Cash-Management

Verfügbar: 4,900€ Investierbar: 2,104€ Ziel-Reserve: 2,795€ Hard Floor: 1,118€

Konsolidierungs-Empfehlungen

Position	Wert	Schwelle	Aktion
APA	1,017€	1,200€	EXIT
HAS	797€	1,200€	EXIT
VRT	773€	1,200€	EXIT

PAPER PORTFOLIO (Simulation)

11,419€

Portfolio 11,419€

Cash 587€

Return +1,419€ (+14.2%)

Sharpe 0.00

Sortino nan

Max DD -13.1%

Win Rate 51%

Ticker	Shares	Price	Value	P&L
NEM Materials	8.00	84.37€	675€	-125€ (-15.6%)
DG Consumer	3.00	98.85€	297€	-20€ (-6.2%)
TPR Consumer	5.00	125.69€	628€	+14€ (+2.2%)
TER Semiconductors	2.00	329.72€	659€	+48€ (+7.8%)
JBL Technology	2.00	325.82€	652€	+13€ (+2.0%)
AMD Semiconductors	1.00	422.27€	422€	+231€ (+121.2%)
DELL Technology	2.00	338.41€	677€	+315€ (+86.9%)
CF Materials	7.00	92.12€	645€	-83€ (-11.4%)
VRT Industrials	1.00	257.52€	258€	-47€ (-15.3%)
HWM Industrials	2.00	228.75€	457€	+24€ (+5.6%)
GOOG Technology	2.00	308.25€	616€	+76€ (+14.2%)
WDC Technology	1.00	457.57€	458€	+170€ (+59.4%)
CAT Industrials	1.00	776.00€	776€	-48€ (-5.8%)
IVZ Financials	23.00	24.46€	563€	+51€ (+9.9%)
VLO Energy	2.00	220.97€	442€	+17€ (+3.9%)
LRCX Semiconductors	2.00	313.40€	627€	+97€ (+18.4%)
NUE Materials	3.00	225.55€	677€	+79€ (+13.2%)
JBHT Unknown	3.00	249.96€	750€	+31€ (+4.2%)
NTAP Unknown	4.00	138.73€	555€	-64€ (-10.3%)

Sektor-Allokation

Technology

22.2% / 30% 2,403€ (4 Pos.)

Materials

18.4% / 15% 1,996€ (3 Pos.)

Semiconductors

15.8% / 25% 1,709€ (3 Pos.)

Industrials

13.8% / 20% 1,491€ (3 Pos.)

Unknown

12.0% / 10% 1,305€ (2 Pos.)

Consumer

8.5% / 15% 925€ (2 Pos.)

Financials

5.2% / 15% 563€ (1 Pos.)

Energy

4.1% / 15% 442€ (1 Pos.)

RISK ANALYTICS

Autocorrelation & Probability of Ruin

LIVE PORTFOLIO

Return Autocorrelation (n=250)

Pattern 🎲 Random Walk

Lag-1 ACF -0.120

95% CI ±0.124

LB p-value 0.377

1

2

3

4

5

Probability of Ruin (Monte Carlo)

🟢 0.0%

0/2000 paths · threshold -30%

p5: -8.2% p50: -5.4% p95: -4.2%

PAPER PORTFOLIO

Return Autocorrelation (n=111)

Pattern 🔄 Mean-Reverting

Lag-1 ACF -0.370

95% CI ±0.186

LB p-value 0.010

1

2

3

4

5

Probability of Ruin (Monte Carlo)

🟢 0.4%

7/2000 paths · threshold -30%

p5: -22.4% p50: -14.3% p95: -10.9%

Avg Ruin Depth: -31.3%

🔬 ALPACA EVALUATION · Tag 54/14 · 0 Tage verbleiben

Recommendation

STAY (LOW confidence)

Net edge: -28.20 EUR/mo

Sensitivity (±5pp): STAY / STAY / STAY

Headline metric (T+15min)

41.7%

CI95 [19.3% – 68.0%] · n=12

LLM-correct-given: 100.0% · LLM-wrong-given: 0.0%

Sample size 12 < 100 — decision will carry LOW confidence

Breakeven (two-term)

FP cost	9.61 EUR
FN cost	28.27 EUR
Total proxy cost	37.88 EUR
Alpaca cost	91.08 EUR
Option value	+25.00 EUR
Net Alpaca edge	-28.20 EUR

Proxy calibration

Monotonic: no · Mean |residual|: 2.60%

Operational context

Go/No-Go gates

p50 latency	0.0s
p95 latency	0.0s
p99 latency	0.0s
Throughput/day	18.1
Finnhub-403/day	0.0

Secondary windows

t5m	45.5%	n=11
t30m	65.4%	n=26
t60m	58.7%	n=46

Signal quality

CONFIRMED	0
DOWNGRADED	0
REVERSED	0
EXPIRED	0
Avg time-to-final	0s

Volume contribution

Price vs. volume divergent	0.0%
Simulated blend gain	5.0%
Cold-start excluded	yes

Risk gates (14d)

VIX	0
Ticker	0
Subindustry	0
Loss	0
Storm	0

Backfill health (24h)

Runs	207
Success rate	0.7%
Rate-limited	0.0%
Stale revisions	0.0%

Per-ticker breakdown

Ticker	n	Hit %	CI95
GOOG (insufficient — n<20)	2	50.0%	[9.5%–90.5%]
HCA (insufficient — n<20)	2	0.0%	[0.0%–65.8%]
HWM (insufficient — n<20)	2	50.0%	[9.5%–90.5%]
ADI (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
AMD (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
GILD (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
LRCX (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
MRVL (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
MU (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
AMAT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
AMGN (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
APA (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
APH (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
BK (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CAH (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CAT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CF (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CFG (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CIEN (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CMI (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CSCO (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
DELL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
DG (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
GLW (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
GNRC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
GOOGL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
HAL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
HAS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
IVZ (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
JBHT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
JBL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
KEYS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
LMT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NEM (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NOC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NTAP (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NVDA (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TDIV.AS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TER (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TPR (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VLO (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VRT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VWCE.DE (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WDC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WM (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WMT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]

Defense cohort (pooled): n=2, hit 50.0% [9.5% – 90.5%]

SEKTOR-ALLOKATION

ETF

23.7% / 40% 12,108€ (2 Pos.)

Semiconductors

19.8% / 25% 10,097€ (4 Pos.)

Technology

16.0% / 30% 8,171€ (4 Pos.)

Financials

12.7% / 15% 6,479€ (2 Pos.)

Materials

11.6% / 15% 5,916€ (2 Pos.)

Industrials

8.7% / 20% 4,432€ (2 Pos.)

Energy

5.9% / 15% 3,006€ (2 Pos.)

Consumer

1.6% / 15% 797€ (1 Pos.)