Portfolio Dashboard

08.10.2026 12:45

Portfolio 55,267€

P&L +3,874€ (+7.5%)

Cash 2,709€

VaR 95% -2,247€ (-4.06%)

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21

Position	Stück	Delta	Kurs	Wert	P&L	Score	Signal
TDIV.AS VanEck Morningstar Developed Markets Dividend Leaders UCITS ETF	160	—	53.61€	8,575€	+2.4%	54	HOLD
VLO Valero Energy Energy	9	—	378.72€	3,408€	+83.6%	85	HOLD
VWCE.DE Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF	44	—	172.14€	7,574€	+9.5%	59	HOLD
CF CF Industry Holdings Materials	34	—	102.19€	3,475€	-5.8%	71	HOLD
APA APA coroporation Energy	46	—	39.12€	1,800€	+12.5%	73	HOLD
APH Amphenol Corp. Semiconductors	38	—	78.18€	2,971€	+6.9%	76	HOLD
NTAP NetApp Inc. Technology	15	—	210.54€	3,158€	+54.4%	82	HOLD
INCY Incyte Corporation Healthcare	28	—	101.30€	2,836€	-6.3%	72	HOLD
EXPE Expedia Group Consumer	4	—	231.16€	925€	-18.7%	58	HOLD
AIZ Assurant Inc. Financials	11	—	238.19€	2,620€	-4.0%	65	HOLD
FTNT Fortinet Inc Technology	12	—	169.03€	2,028€	+14.2%	84	HOLD
AAPL Apple Inc. Technology	7	—	300.65€	2,105€	+9.7%	76	HOLD
EXPD Expeditors International Industrials	17	—	170.43€	2,897€	+4.5%	82	HOLD
PSX Phillips 66 Energy	5	—	242.56€	1,213€	+11.9%	80	HOLD
DVN Devon Energy Corp. Energy	33	—	42.76€	1,411€	+0.4%	75	HOLD
CAH Cardinal Health Inc. Healthcare	7	—	207.32€	1,451€	-3.8%	79	HOLD
BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. Healthcare	20	—	53.31€	1,066€	-4.7%	70	HOLD
VTRS Viatris Inc. Healthcare	48	—	15.62€	750€	+2.1%	54	HOLD
ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corp. Technology	4	—	344.74€	1,379€	+6.8%	81	HOLD
AMGN Amgen Inc. Healthcare	5	—	368.88€	1,844€	-0.3%	80	HOLD
GEV GE Vernova Industrials	2	—	890.40€	1,781€	-0.3%	80	HOLD

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ZUSAMMENFASSUNG

Verkäufe +0€

Käufe -0€

Netto +0€

Status ✓ Cash OK

Transaktionskosten -0.00€ (0.00%)

Broker-Profil Finanzen.Net Zero (Gettex)

COOLDOWN: 0 blockiert TLH: 0 geerntet AVT: 5,002.79€ P&L: +0.00€ KOSTEN: 0 gefiltert AUDIT: audit_log.jsonl

FAMILY OFFICE

Core (ETFs)

27.9%

Ziel: 30% OK

Satellite (Aktien)

67.5%

Ziel: 65% OK

Cash

4.7%

Ziel: 5% BUILDING

Positionen

21/22

Auslastung: 95%

Cash-Management

Verfügbar: 2,709€ Investierbar: 0€ Ziel-Reserve: 2,899€ Hard Floor: 1,160€

Konsolidierungs-Empfehlungen

Position	Wert	Schwelle	Aktion
EXPE	925€	1,200€	EXIT
BMY	1,066€	1,200€	EXIT
VTRS	750€	1,200€	EXIT

PAPER PORTFOLIO (Simulation)

12,697€

Portfolio 12,697€

Cash 239€

Return +2,697€ (+27.0%)

Sharpe 0.82

Sortino 1.17

Max DD -13.1%

Win Rate 53%

Ticker	Shares	Price	Value	P&L
AMD Semiconductors	1.00	576.75€	577€	+128€ (+28.5%)
DELL Technology	1.00	517.01€	517€	+66€ (+14.7%)
CF Materials	7.00	102.19€	715€	+31€ (+4.5%)
GOOG Technology	2.00	310.20€	620€	+80€ (+14.9%)
IVZ Financials	32.00	27.24€	872€	+116€ (+15.4%)
VLO Energy	2.00	378.72€	757€	+249€ (+48.9%)
NUE Materials	2.00	220.07€	440€	+21€ (+5.1%)
NTAP Technology	4.00	210.54€	842€	+232€ (+38.1%)
MS Financials	5.00	169.41€	847€	-107€ (-11.2%)
WST Unknown	2.00	327.27€	655€	+18€ (+2.8%)
FTNT Technology	4.00	169.03€	676€	+107€ (+18.7%)
ABNB Unknown	4.00	143.44€	574€	-66€ (-10.4%)
ENR.DE Energy	4.27	141.96€	606€	-94€ (-13.5%)
FCX Materials	10.00	64.17€	642€	+72€ (+12.6%)
ROST Consumer	2.00	201.40€	403€	-2€ (-0.6%)
MRVL Semiconductors	3.00	254.22€	763€	+155€ (+25.5%)
TGT Consumer	4.00	134.77€	539€	-19€ (-3.3%)
ADI Semiconductors	2.00	366.20€	732€	+78€ (+12.0%)
KEYS Technology	2.00	340.61€	681€	+98€ (+16.8%)

Sektor-Allokation

Technology

26.8% / 30% 3,337€ (5 Pos.)

Semiconductors

16.6% / 25% 2,072€ (3 Pos.)

Materials

14.4% / 15% 1,797€ (3 Pos.)

Financials

13.8% / 15% 1,719€ (2 Pos.)

Energy

10.9% / 15% 1,363€ (2 Pos.)

Unknown

9.9% / 10% 1,228€ (2 Pos.)

Consumer

7.6% / 15% 942€ (2 Pos.)

RISK ANALYTICS

Autocorrelation & Probability of Ruin

LIVE PORTFOLIO

Return Autocorrelation (n=250)

Pattern 🔄 Mean-Reverting

Lag-1 ACF -0.134

95% CI ±0.124

LB p-value 0.665

1

2

3

4

5

Probability of Ruin (Monte Carlo)

🟢 0.0%

0/2000 paths · threshold -30%

p5: -4.7% p50: -4.1% p95: -2.2%

PAPER PORTFOLIO

Return Autocorrelation (n=195)

Pattern 🔄 Mean-Reverting

Lag-1 ACF -0.340

95% CI ±0.140

LB p-value 0.000

1

2

3

4

5

Probability of Ruin (Monte Carlo)

🟢 0.4%

7/2000 paths · threshold -30%

p5: -23.0% p50: -14.8% p95: -11.2%

Avg Ruin Depth: -31.9%

🔬 ALPACA EVALUATION · Tag 172/14 · 0 Tage verbleiben

Recommendation

STAY (MEDIUM confidence)

Net edge: -25.40 EUR/mo

Sensitivity (±5pp): STAY / STAY / STAY

Headline metric (T+15min)

63.3%

CI95 [50.7% – 74.4%] · n=60

LLM-correct-given: 100.0% · LLM-wrong-given: 0.0%

Sample size 60 < 100 — decision will carry LOW confidence

Breakeven (two-term)

FP cost	9.26 EUR
FN cost	31.42 EUR
Total proxy cost	40.68 EUR
Alpaca cost	91.08 EUR
Option value	+25.00 EUR
Net Alpaca edge	-25.40 EUR

Proxy calibration

Monotonic: yes · Mean |residual|: 2.58%

Operational context

Go/No-Go gates

p50 latency	0.0s
p95 latency	0.0s
p99 latency	0.0s
Throughput/day	13.5
Finnhub-403/day	0.0

Secondary windows

t5m	60.0%	n=30
t30m	61.5%	n=96
t60m	59.7%	n=129

Signal quality

CONFIRMED	0
DOWNGRADED	0
REVERSED	0
EXPIRED	0
Avg time-to-final	0s

Volume contribution

Price vs. volume divergent	0.0%
Simulated blend gain	5.0%
Cold-start excluded	yes

Risk gates (14d)

VIX	0
Ticker	0
Subindustry	0
Loss	0
Storm	0

Backfill health (24h)

Runs	260
Success rate	0.6%
Rate-limited	0.0%
Stale revisions	0.0%

Per-ticker breakdown

Ticker	n	Hit %	CI95
AMD (insufficient — n<20)	10	60.0%	[31.3%–83.2%]
DELL (insufficient — n<20)	6	100.0%	[61.0%–100.0%]
GOOG (insufficient — n<20)	6	33.3%	[9.7%–70.0%]
MRVL (insufficient — n<20)	6	66.7%	[30.0%–90.3%]
JBHT (insufficient — n<20)	3	100.0%	[43.8%–100.0%]
NTAP (insufficient — n<20)	3	66.7%	[20.8%–93.9%]
ROST (insufficient — n<20)	3	33.3%	[6.1%–79.2%]
CAH (insufficient — n<20)	2	100.0%	[34.2%–100.0%]
CSCO (insufficient — n<20)	2	100.0%	[34.2%–100.0%]
HCA (insufficient — n<20)	2	0.0%	[0.0%–65.8%]
HWM (insufficient — n<20)	2	50.0%	[9.5%–90.5%]
MU (insufficient — n<20)	2	0.0%	[0.0%–65.8%]
WDC (insufficient — n<20)	2	100.0%	[34.2%–100.0%]
AAPL (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
ADI (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
AMGN (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
APH (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
GILD (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
GLW (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
GOOGL (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
HUM (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
LRCX (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
NUE (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
NVDA (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
ABNB (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
AMAT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
APA (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
BK (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
BMY (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
BNY (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
C (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CASY (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CAT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CF (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CFG (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CIEN (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CMI (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CNC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CSX (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
DAL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
DG (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
DVN (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
EIX (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
ELV (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
ENR.DE (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
EXPD (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
EXPE (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
FCX (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
FDX (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
FTNT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
GNRC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
HAL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
HAS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
IBKR (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
INCY (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
IVZ (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
JBL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
KEYS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
LMT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
MCK (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
MS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NEM (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NOC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
PSX (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TDIV.AS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TER (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TGT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TPR (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TXN (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VLO (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VRT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VTRS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VWCE.DE (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WM (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WMT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WST (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]

Defense cohort (pooled): n=2, hit 50.0% [9.5% – 90.5%]

SEKTOR-ALLOKATION

ETF

29.2% / 40% 16,149€ (2 Pos.)

Technology

15.7% / 30% 8,670€ (4 Pos.)

Healthcare

14.4% / 25% 7,948€ (5 Pos.)

Energy

14.2% / 15% 7,832€ (4 Pos.)

Industrials

8.5% / 20% 4,678€ (2 Pos.)

Materials

6.3% / 15% 3,475€ (1 Pos.)

Semiconductors

5.4% / 25% 2,971€ (1 Pos.)

Financials

4.7% / 15% 2,620€ (1 Pos.)

Consumer

1.7% / 15% 925€ (1 Pos.)