Portfolio Dashboard

10.08.2026 12:47

Portfolio 50,649€

P&L +797€ (+1.6%)

Cash 6,008€

VaR 95% N/A (unzureichende Daten)

TRIM (Übergewicht)

1

Position	Stück	Delta	Kurs	Wert	Gewicht (Pre→Post Δ)	P&L	Kosten	Score	Prio	Grund
BNY Bank or New York Mellon Financials	5	-5	136.44€	682€	1.3% → 0.0% -1.3%	-1.3%	—	70	—	EXIT

HALTEN

20

Position	Stück	Delta	Kurs	Wert	P&L	Score	Signal
VLO Valero Energy Energy	9	—	258.25€	2,324€	+28.3%	74	BUY
VWCE.DE Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF	44	—	168.44€	7,411€	+7.2%	65	HOLD
TDIV.AS VanEck Morningstar Developed Markets Dividend Leaders UCITS ETF	157	—	47.77€	7,500€	-8.7%	64	HOLD
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORP. NEW Semiconductors	4	—	269.54€	1,078€	-4.9%	73	BUY
HWM HOWMET AEROSPACE DL-,01 Industrials	16	—	244.02€	3,904€	+9.8%	75	STRONG_BUY
CFG Citizen Financials Group Financials	27	—	62.91€	1,699€	+13.8%	74	BUY
JBL Jabil Inc. Technology	5	—	295.39€	1,477€	+15.6%	73	BUY
CF CF Industry Holdings Materials	34	—	98.99€	3,366€	-8.7%	66	BUY
APA APA coroporation Energy	30	—	32.58€	977€	-3.7%	87	HOLD
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Technology	6	—	306.72€	1,840€	-5.4%	72	BUY
CSCO Cisco Inc. Technology Earnings in 2d (Q3 2026)	14	—	105.12€	1,472€	+2.1%	84	BLOCKED
CASY Casey's General Stores Inc. Consumer	3	—	721.95€	2,166€	-5.8%	68	BUY
JBHT J.B. Hunt Transportation Industrials	8	—	232.46€	1,860€	-5.6%	62	BUY
APH Amphenol Corp. Technology	12	—	146.46€	1,758€	+2.5%	73	BUY
NTAP NetApp Inc. Technology	15	—	164.07€	2,461€	+20.3%	79	STRONG_BUY
ROST Ross stores Consumer	9	—	220.95€	1,989€	+7.3%	80	STRONG_BUY
INCY Incyte Corporation Healthcare	18	—	104.37€	1,879€	+1.7%	81	STRONG_BUY
DAL Delta Airlines Industrials	23	—	79.07€	1,819€	-3.0%	76	STRONG_BUY
FTNT Fortinet Technology	8	—	138.20€	1,106€	-7.3%	74	HOLD
EXPE Expedia Group Consumer	7	—	268.96€	1,883€	+0.3%	82	STRONG_BUY

KAUFEN

0

Keine Kaufempfehlungen

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG

Verkäufe +682€

Käufe -0€

Netto +682€

Status ✓ Cash OK

Transaktionskosten -0.00€ (0.00%)

Broker-Profil Finanzen.Net Zero (Gettex)

COOLDOWN: 0 blockiert TLH: 0 geerntet AVT: 5,002.79€ P&L: +0.00€ KOSTEN: 0 gefiltert AUDIT: audit_log.jsonl

FAMILY OFFICE

Core (ETFs)

26.3%

Ziel: 30% OK

Satellite (Aktien)

63.1%

Ziel: 65% OK

Cash

10.6%

Ziel: 5% OK

Positionen

21/20

Auslastung: 105%

Cash-Management

Verfügbar: 6,008€ Investierbar: 3,175€ Ziel-Reserve: 2,833€ Hard Floor: 1,133€

Konsolidierungs-Empfehlungen

Position	Wert	Schwelle	Aktion
LRCX	1,078€	1,200€	EXIT
APA	977€	1,200€	EXIT
BNY	682€	1,200€	EXIT
FTNT	1,106€	1,200€	EXIT

PAPER PORTFOLIO (Simulation)

11,956€

Portfolio 11,956€

Cash 791€

Return +1,956€ (+19.6%)

Sharpe 0.77

Sortino 1.17

Max DD -13.1%

Win Rate 52%

Ticker	Shares	Price	Value	P&L
DG Consumer	8.00	109.59€	877€	+37€ (+4.5%)
TPR Consumer	7.00	140.56€	984€	+115€ (+13.3%)
AMD Semiconductors	1.00	418.44€	418€	+228€ (+119.2%)
DELL Technology	2.00	392.83€	786€	+239€ (+43.7%)
CF Materials	8.00	98.99€	792€	-0€ (-0.0%)
HWM Industrials	2.00	244.02€	488€	+1€ (+0.1%)
GOOG Technology	2.00	306.00€	612€	+72€ (+13.3%)
WDC Technology	1.00	375.97€	376€	+89€ (+31.0%)
IVZ Financials	37.00	27.34€	1,012€	+145€ (+16.7%)
VLO Energy	2.00	258.25€	516€	+91€ (+21.5%)
NUE Materials	2.00	236.02€	472€	+53€ (+12.7%)
JBHT Industrials	2.00	232.46€	465€	-15€ (-3.1%)
NTAP Technology	5.00	164.07€	820€	+66€ (+8.7%)
CSCO Technology	4.00	105.12€	420€	+11€ (+2.8%)
MS Financials	3.00	187.28€	562€	-19€ (-3.3%)
WST Unknown	2.00	306.52€	613€	-24€ (-3.8%)
CNC Unknown	7.00	56.94€	399€	-4€ (-1.0%)
FTNT Technology	4.00	138.20€	553€	-17€ (-2.9%)

Sektor-Allokation

Technology

32.0% / 30% 3,567€ (6 Pos.)

Consumer

16.7% / 15% 1,861€ (2 Pos.)

Financials

14.1% / 15% 1,573€ (2 Pos.)

Materials

11.3% / 15% 1,264€ (2 Pos.)

Unknown

9.1% / 10% 1,012€ (2 Pos.)

Industrials

8.5% / 20% 953€ (2 Pos.)

Energy

4.6% / 15% 516€ (1 Pos.)

Semiconductors

3.7% / 25% 418€ (1 Pos.)

RISK ANALYTICS

Autocorrelation & Probability of Ruin

LIVE PORTFOLIO

Return Autocorrelation (n=250)

Pattern 🎲 Random Walk

Lag-1 ACF -0.120

95% CI ±0.124

LB p-value 0.309

1

2

3

4

5

Probability of Ruin (Monte Carlo)

🟢 0.0%

0/2000 paths · threshold -30%

p5: -5.0% p50: -4.2% p95: -2.2%

PAPER PORTFOLIO

Return Autocorrelation (n=152)

Pattern 🔄 Mean-Reverting

Lag-1 ACF -0.347

95% CI ±0.159

LB p-value 0.000

1

2

3

4

5

Probability of Ruin (Monte Carlo)

🟢 0.5%

10/2000 paths · threshold -30%

p5: -23.1% p50: -14.8% p95: -11.3%

Avg Ruin Depth: -32.3%

🔬 ALPACA EVALUATION · Tag 113/14 · 0 Tage verbleiben

Recommendation

STAY (LOW confidence)

Net edge: -37.76 EUR/mo

Sensitivity (±5pp): STAY / STAY / STAY

Headline metric (T+15min)

61.5%

CI95 [35.5% – 82.3%] · n=13

LLM-correct-given: 100.0% · LLM-wrong-given: 0.0%

Sample size 13 < 100 — decision will carry LOW confidence

Breakeven (two-term)

FP cost	3.50 EUR
FN cost	24.81 EUR
Total proxy cost	28.32 EUR
Alpaca cost	91.08 EUR
Option value	+25.00 EUR
Net Alpaca edge	-37.76 EUR

Proxy calibration

Monotonic: yes · Mean |residual|: 2.48%

Operational context

Go/No-Go gates

p50 latency	0.0s
p95 latency	0.0s
p99 latency	0.0s
Throughput/day	14.5
Finnhub-403/day	0.0

Secondary windows

t5m	66.7%	n=6
t30m	72.7%	n=33
t60m	62.5%	n=48

Signal quality

CONFIRMED	0
DOWNGRADED	0
REVERSED	0
EXPIRED	0
Avg time-to-final	0s

Volume contribution

Price vs. volume divergent	0.0%
Simulated blend gain	5.0%
Cold-start excluded	yes

Risk gates (14d)

VIX	0
Ticker	0
Subindustry	0
Loss	0
Storm	0

Backfill health (24h)

Runs	268
Success rate	0.0%
Rate-limited	0.0%
Stale revisions	0.0%

Per-ticker breakdown

Ticker	n	Hit %	CI95
AMD (insufficient — n<20)	2	100.0%	[34.2%–100.0%]
GOOG (insufficient — n<20)	2	50.0%	[9.5%–90.5%]
HWM (insufficient — n<20)	2	50.0%	[9.5%–90.5%]
ADI (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
CAH (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
GILD (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
HCA (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
MRVL (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
MU (insufficient — n<20)	1	0.0%	[0.0%–79.3%]
NVDA (insufficient — n<20)	1	100.0%	[20.7%–100.0%]
AMAT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
AMGN (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
APA (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
APH (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
BK (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
BNY (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
C (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CASY (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CAT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CF (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CFG (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CIEN (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CMI (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CNC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
CSCO (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
DAL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
DELL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
DG (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
FCX (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
FDX (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
FTNT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
GLW (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
GNRC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
GOOGL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
HAL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
HAS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
INCY (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
IVZ (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
JBHT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
JBL (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
KEYS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
LMT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
LRCX (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
MS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NEM (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NOC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NTAP (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
NUE (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TDIV.AS (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TER (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TPR (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
TXN (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VLO (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VRT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
VWCE.DE (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WDC (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WM (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WMT (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]
WST (insufficient — n<20)	0	0.0%	[0.0%–100.0%]

Defense cohort (pooled): n=2, hit 50.0% [9.5% – 90.5%]

SEKTOR-ALLOKATION

ETF

29.4% / 40% 14,911€ (2 Pos.)

Technology

20.0% / 30% 10,113€ (6 Pos.)

Industrials

15.0% / 20% 7,583€ (3 Pos.)

Consumer

11.9% / 15% 6,037€ (3 Pos.)

Materials

6.6% / 15% 3,366€ (1 Pos.)

Energy

6.5% / 15% 3,302€ (2 Pos.)

Financials

4.7% / 15% 2,381€ (2 Pos.)

Healthcare

3.7% / 25% 1,879€ (1 Pos.)

Semiconductors

2.1% / 25% 1,078€ (1 Pos.)